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6. Forecasting and prediction
Until recently there was little hope of forecasting these systems. Meteorologists could identify those conditions that were likely to produce severe weather and generate a 'watch'. If a tornado was spotted a 'warning' was issued. Those living in tornado areas were advised to have a special weather radio that sets off an alarm during a watch. Moreover, many towns have warning systems that consist of horns that sound when a tornado has been spotted. However, these warnings provide little time to respond - what is needed is sufficient time to prepare. The relatively small size and destructive power of a tornado means that they have rarely been measured. As a result, much of our knowledge comes from measurements made in the 'field' by scientists that bring the instruments to the storm (tornado chasers). While these have provided much information about the workings of these violent storms they are unlikely to provide forecasts. Instead, the emphasis must be on extending the warning time and on preparation. More recently a special radar called Doppler has become more widely available. These systems can detect the movement of hail and droplets within the cloud. Now the internal cloud rotation that precedes the appearance of a tornado can be seen as a 'hook' shape on the radar screen. These systems can provide additional warning time of 15 minutes or so.
